That’s Poker? Orly? Online poker is rigged.

Losing a buy-in to a no-hope donk’s 2-outer is not a good feeling.

The anger and outrage it causes in less experienced players is sort of justified, but the jump from “lucky idiot” to conspiracies of dodgy dealing? Not so much.

I guess it’s not really surprising that people would reach that conclusion in the naturally skeptical world of poker, but no — online poker is not rigged. Sorry.

Bad runs happen. If they didn’t, it would be rigged. Bottom line? If you can’t take the swings, drop a stake or find something else to do.

Tilt control is a serious part of what separates winners from losers. Extracting value when you have the best of it is one skill — Surviving with your confidence intact and still playing a +EV game when you have the worst of it is another.

It’s almost like our brains have a built-in compensatory mechanism — we want to think our winnings are based on skill and our losses are based on luck. But a selective memory like that is something you really need to get past if you want to be any good at poker.

Is it a tell?

Oh yeah, so I’d be careful who you announce your suspicions to — live players (in fact, online players too) who never shutup about the game being rigged are almost definitely weak players and will never improve because they’re too stupid to even consider that maybe they just suck.

Mark them. And play your draws because they’ll call you down in spots when it’s obvious they shouldn’t, just to prove to themselves how unlucky they are — A technique covered in my Guide to World Class Bad Poker known as Obsessive Compulsive Calling Disorder.

Experienced players with a good understanding of poker and the short-term nature of variance won’t even pass comment. Taking a 96.5% bet for a buy-in is something every poker player should be happy to have done, even if it turned out to be the 1 in 24 that went sour.

How come it’s always the losing outdraws?

You never hear: I just rivered a set… OMG it’s rigged!

Aren’t those hands evidence too? “No, you see, because when I make a set with against I do it with skill and finesse…”

Apologies to anyone who was born with an ability to flop trips when they feel like it but, for those less gifted, that’s about as convincing as the Bible’s account of creation. Any hold ‘em player who honestly thinks they’ve never outdrawn anyone to win from behind is either spectacularly inattentive or wrong.

But.. but, um maths!! The maths!?

If you win or vs. a smaller pair 9 times in a row at showdown for small pots and then lose Aces vs. Jacks at showdown for a much bigger pot that felts you, then you’ve been both lucky and unlucky.

You were lucky because, as an 80% favourite, statistically you should’ve lost 2 out of the 10. But you were unlucky because the timing of the one losing hand meant you lost everything.

And that is poker.

1. #1 - March 27th, 2009 at 10:40 am
   Do Not Play Cards With This Guy. says:
   

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